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Опубликовано 13 Сентября 2016, 12:12:55
rnst&Young faired no better. They thought house prices would rise 7% in 2004 before slowing to zero or even declining in the following years. The Centre of Economics and Business Research is an independent business that http://www.teambayernmunichmall.com/Kingsley-Coman-FC-Bayern-Munich-Jersey.html , according to their website carries out "thorough and insightful research". In 2003 they claimed UK house prices would rise 15% in 2004 and 3.4% in 2005 before falling 1.5% in 2006 and 2.3% in 2007. They pointed out that the average home would be worth less in 2007 than it was being sold for in 2003. In reality they rose 14%, 3%, 9% and 7%. The average buyer, purchasing the average house, would be ?20 http://www.teambayernmunichmall.com/Julian-Green-FC-Bayern-Munich-Jersey.html ,000 worse off today had they followed the expert's advice. Capital Economics is a similar organisation but on their website they state that they offer "original and insightful research" and point out specifically their work in the property sector. One of their scenarios was picked up by the Daily Mail newspaper in 2002 where they forecast a 12% rise in 2003 before falls of 5% in 2004, 10% in 2005 and 7% in 2006. Buyers following this advice would have been even worse off than those who listened to the Centre of Economics and Business Research. The Halifax is one of Britain's largest mortgage lenders with a 23% market share. Buyers would hope they would be more accurate as the future of house prices affects their core business. But in January 2004 they predicted values would rise 8% in the following twelve months. By July they had changed their prediction to 16%, fundamentally admitting they were 100% wrong. These are the experts but many of the names may be unfamiliar to buyers because they have only come into contact with them via newspapers and the media who lead with headlines such as "House prices to fall by 30%" or "Bank chief warns of property price crash". Even worse, and even more confusing, is that the same media can seem to contradict itself. On 1st March 2005 the BBC headline was "House Prices Show Slight Increase". Three days later another headline said "House Prices Slip in February". By the end of the month they released an article titled "House Prices Dip Worst in a Decade" but by 5th April the headline was "House Prices Stage Rise in March". So if those who spend so much time and effort in Great Britain cannot get it right what can be said about those who write about the Polish market? Well unfortunately they are going down the same road as their British counterparts. Rednet is one of the largest real estate brokers in Poland. In their market report for 2008 they made statements such as "Katowice is reaching its maximum level" and "Lodz is above the purchasing power of its inhabitants" while at the same time admitting they could not explain why prices in Wilanow http://www.teambayernmunichmall.com/Juan-Bernat-FC-Bayern-Munich-Jersey.html , an upmarket suburb of Warsaw with large numbers of new apartments coming onto the market, had seen price rises of 30%. Conversely Ober-Haus, another chain of estate agents, believes that there are not enough residential units coming onto the market in any of the major cities and that prices will continue to rise. With the two leading experts contradicting each other the situation is every bit as confusing as in Britain. Some buyers try to carry out their own research but if big companies with so much resource and computer power can't get it right, what are the chances that you http://www.teambayernmunichmall.com/Joshua-Kimmich-FC-Bayern-Munich-Jersey.html , with a spreadsheet, will do any better? While it might be easy to deduce that some of these "experts" are keener to chase sensational "bad news-good news" headlines rather than give us the facts, the underlying truth is that many analysts turn to average salaries and changes in interest rates to guess how the market will develop and both these tests have already been shown to have little correlation with house prices. If all that leaves you a little depressed about what to do and where to look consider a comment from Michael Jones, Managing Director of The Right Move Abroad, "It is important to look at the country as a whole http://www.teambayernmunichmall.com/Jerome-Boateng-FC-Bayern-Munich-Jersey.html , and not just the property market. What state is the local economy in? Is there room for further growth? Find the answers to these questions." The richer a country gets, the more house prices will rise. To this end Poland looks very promising: * Residential mortgage loans make up less than 10% of the country's GDP compared to a 48% average in the EU * GDP per capita is still less than half that of its German neighbour but the gap is reducing rapidly * Pole's bring back between 21 and 55 billion Euros each year from working abroad, most of which they spend on goods, services and property * There are 2,000 km of motorway to be build between 2007 and 2013 improving the infrastructure for further growth in freight and logistics * Eight brand new international airports are either under construction or planned which will open up the country to even more tourists * Over 70 billion Euros is to be spent updating the country's infrastructure over the next five years which will attract increased commercial and industrial investment * Poland has the most acute housing shortage in all of Europe with 308 dwellings per thousand inhabitants (compared to 425 in the UK and 471 in Bulgaria) * Poland is consistently in the top twenty countries for Global Foreign Direct Investment confidence * Polish exports doubled between 2000 and 2005 and are now rising even faster since it joined the EU * Poland is now the seventh most popular tourist destination in Europe http://www.teambayernmunichmall.com/Javi-Martinez-FC-Bayern-Munich-Jersey.html , attracting more visitors every year than Greece * And so the list goes on In the end there are two quotes that have stood the test of time. Michael Ball of Reading University who said, "House prices are like the weather, everyone has an opinion" and Phil Spencer of Garsingtons Property Finders in London who said. "Statistics can only tell you so much about buying a house". Perhaps
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